Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky proclamation of a doomsday cult, apocalypse bible prophecy sect, or conspiracy theory society. Rather, it is the scientific conclusion of the best paid, most widely-respected geologists, physicists, and investment bankers in the world. These are rational, professional, conservative individuals who are absolutely terrified by a phenomenon known as global "Peak Oil."
"While population increases geometrically, the food supply increases incrementally."
I read the MSNBC article, and didn't see much new there, except that Chinese provinces are re-thinking their policy of discouraging small cars.As far as your note above, here is something from the eminent Canadian right wing whacko Mark Steyn, excerpted from his recent article, "It's the Demography. Stupid" OpinionJournal - Extra , which was in the Reactionary Rag AKA the Wall Street Journal:The Western world has delivered more wealth and more comfort to more of its citizens than any other civilization in history, and in return we've developed a great cult of worrying. You know the classics of the genre: In 1968, in his bestselling book "The Population Bomb," the eminent scientist Paul Ehrlich declared: "In the 1970s the world will undergo famines--hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death." In 1972, in their landmark study "The Limits to Growth," the Club of Rome announced that the world would run out of gold by 1981, of mercury by 1985, tin by 1987, zinc by 1990, petroleum by 1992, and copper, lead and gas by 1993.
None of these things happened. In fact, quite the opposite is happening. We're pretty much awash in resources, but we're running out of people--the one truly indispensable resource, without which none of the others matter. Russia's the most obvious example: it's the largest country on earth, it's full of natural resources, and yet it's dying--its population is falling calamitously.I was taught much of the above, at Fairfield University, in 1972 and 1973, by the late ecology specialist Dr. Salvatore Bongiorno, who I did ecology courses with, as well as a senior research project. I read "The Limits of Growth".Now here's some more bad news, unless you're a member of ZPG (or you're a diehard Republican). Again it's from Steyn's opinion piece:the hard data on babies around the Western world is that they're running out a lot faster than the oil is. "Replacement" fertility rate--i.e., the number you need for merely a stable population, not getting any bigger, not getting any smaller--is 2.1 babies per woman. Some countries are well above that: the global fertility leader, Somalia, is 6.91, Niger 6.83, Afghanistan 6.78, Yemen 6.75. Notice what those nations have in common?Scroll way down to the bottom of the Hot One Hundred top breeders and you'll eventually find the United States, hovering just at replacement rate with 2.07 births per woman. Ireland is 1.87, New Zealand 1.79, Australia 1.76. But Canada's fertility rate is down to 1.5, well below replacement rate; Germany and Austria are at 1.3, the brink of the death spiral; Russia and Italy are at 1.2; Spain 1.1, about half replacement rate. That's to say, Spain's population is halving every generation. By 2050, Italy's population will have fallen by 22%, Bulgaria's by 36%, Estonia's by 52%. In America, demographic trends suggest that the blue states ought to apply for honorary membership of the EU: In the 2004 election, John Kerry won the 16 with the lowest birthrates; George W. Bush took 25 of the 26 states with the highest. By 2050, there will be 100 million fewer Europeans, 100 million more Americans--and mostly red-state Americans.
When your daughter is my age, the world is going to be even more transformed than it has been since the early sixties - but it wont be for lack of energy sources.
The Sleptical Environmentalist.
Posted by: Dave | January 10, 2006 at 02:47 PM
I'm glad so many people don't believe in "peak oil" as it gives me and mine a better opportunity to set ourselves up for the fall... and I get a lot of laughs out of reading nay-sayer's comments...
If you think you know what you're talking about you should try to discredit this link... first you have to read it all... It took me two hours...http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/ good luck!
Posted by: bill | August 05, 2006 at 04:32 AM